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Jake Kumerow https://www.thepackersfanshop.com , Trevor Davis, J’Mon Moore, and a deep group of talented camp players are fighting for roster spots, but a new philosophy and needs elsewhere could trim the numbers down significantly from last year." /Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesAcme Packing Company homepageHorizontal - WhiteAcme Packing Companya Green Bay Packers communityFollow Acme Packing Company online:Follow Acme Packing Company on TwitterFollow Acme Packing Company on FacebookFollow Acme Packing Company on InstagramLog in or sign upLog InSign UpSite searchSearchSearchAcme Packing Company main menuFanpostsFanshotsSectionsPackersOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 321 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football Advicethe numbers down significantly from last year. CDTShare this storyShare this on FacebookShare this on TwitterShareAll sharing optionsShareAll sharing options for:Receiver numbers could be deemed a luxury Packers can’t afford at final cutsTwitterFacebookRedditPocketFlipboardEmailCan the Packers afford to keep someone like Trevor Davis who may only contribute on special teams over a running back who may have to play significant offensive snaps? Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty ImagesRecent history says the Green Bay Packers will keep six receivers (at least) and four running backs. Each of Matt LaFleur’s most recent offenses feature this shape. Green Bay kept seven multiple times in the last few seasons, however, and the team boasts a deep group of receivers as we head through the preseason. This season though, with depth needs on the roster elsewhere, Green Bay simply may not be able to afford, nor might the Packers want, to keep such a deep group of receivers. If they’re going to play two or three receivers 90% of the time, the marginal value of receivers numbers 5, 6, and 7 plummet, particularly relative to the value of players at other positions who are far more likely to step on the field. LaFleur’s offense doesn’t require five-receiver sets, preferring instead to exploit matchup problems out of base personnel. That Danny Vitale is far more likely to make the roster than Trevor Davis speaks volumes. To avoid lengthy explanations and justifications for player picks, we can do a little back-of-the-napkin math on the roster. Let’s say the team keeps something close to the minimum safe number of players at most positions. That means just two quarterbacks, eight offensive linemen, six cornerbacks, four inside linebackers, five outside linebackers and six defensive linemen. That’s already 31 players and we have to add three for the special teams guys, bringing up to 34. These are minimum numbers and Green Bay could easily want to keep more at key positions. Four tight ends looks like something close to a lock with the two vets and two young guys and we’re at 38. A minimum number of safeties for Mike Pettine’s defense would be four and there are at least three locks with Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage, and Raven Greene. Considering how often Pettine plays three safeties, we have to get to at least four and I’d predict five with Josh Jones and Natrell Jamerson. That’s 43, leaving 10 roster spots between the skill positions beyond tight end. Right off the bat, that takes seven receivers right off the table. Even with injuries, the Packers won’t only keep three running backs with Danny Vitale, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams locks to be on the roster. Corey Grant’s contract isn’t guaranteed beyond the $60,000 he got to sign, but they clearly brought him in with the intention of using him. This could be the key trade off for Green Bay. Dexter Williams and/or Tra Carson are right there in the mix as well, with the draft pick out of Notre Dame most likely to make the squad. Given the importance of the run game to LaFleur offense, combined with the injuries the team has already suffered at the position, it follows the Packers would want to assure depth there. Four feels like the absolute drop-dead floor for running backs and given the current injury toll for Green Bay, it’s hard to imagine four feeling like enough. Sure, running backs are replaceable, but part of the reason for that stems from the sad reality they quite literally must be replaced often. Having a group you already feel good about puts a team ahead of the proverbial game. This is something outstanding offenses like the Patriots, Chiefs Green Bay Packers Customized Jerseys , Saints, Chargers and others understand acutely. On the receiver side, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison and Equanimeous St. Brown are locks. In terms of pure receiving ability, Jake Kumerow stands head and hair-adorned shoulders ahead Trevor Davis and J’Mon Moore and it’s not even close with the latter. Kumerow would make five and that could be sufficient. Moore hasn’t shown anything in his first year and a half as an NFL player which is a bummer for a fourth-round pick, but his draft counterparts appear to be legitimate factors in this offense. If he’s bad enough to not make the team, he’s likely bad enough to sneak onto the practice squad with minimal concern. The real question comes down to Trevor Davis and his ability as a returner. If they can only keep five receivers, does his return ability trump his clear disadvantage in receiving ability to Kumerow? Even with a much more impressive camp from Davis, he’s behind Touchdown Jesus in terms of progression in the NFL and certainly on trust from Aaron Rodgers. Six receivers to keep one just as a returner at the expense of a running back who will likely actually play feels like poor roster construction. We have to take Matt LaFleur at his word when he says the offense is built off the run game. Having a stable of capable players at a position with a known turnover rate due to injury makes more sense than keep an extra receiver who the team doesn’t actually want to be playing receiver. Players like Corey Grant can handle kicks with Tony Brown, Ka’Dar Hollman, and even Jaire Alexander returning punts in a pinch (I’m all for the Patrick Peterson/Antonio Brown methodology of having a special situations punt returner with Alexander). Worrying about the return game in the modern NFL makes no logical sense. Touchbacks are at an all-time high. Rule changes will make punt returns harder. Someone like Davis earning a roster spot simply to return kicks doesn’t jibe with how the league looks right now, nor does it fit with how LaFleur wants to play. He and Moore are good theoretical fits in the offense for myriad reasons, but right now they’re just not good enough players to justify rostering them over a running back who will almost certainly have to play 30 snaps in a game at some point. This feels counter-intuitive. Keep more running backs; keep fewer receivers. But given the rest of the Packers roster, Brian Gutekunst and Co. are going to be squeezed by the numbers. They should probably keep nine offensive linemen instead of just eight. What if Curtis Bolton plays his way onto the squad? Could they afford to only keep five outside linebackers at a position Pettine loves to rotate?Jimmy Graham serves as a de facto receiver and we know LaFleur wants to throw more to his backs. A team that will play two or fewer receivers half the time can’t afford the luxury of keeping six or seven receivers with the two-deep barely reaching essential minimum levels elsewhere. Cutting draft picks is never easy, but Moore has made it easier by failing to take a significant step in the league. LaFleur’s offensive philosophy may also make it simpler to walk away from someone like Davis as the team focuses its efforts on playing bigger and creating matchups that way. Right now, with the preseason set to open, the race for the last spot could very well come down to Grant vs. Davis and a fight over ideologies. Given the effort the front office made to get Grant, his potential fit in the offense, and his versatility as a returner, he should be considered the favorite to land the gig. Everybody has a coaching crush. We detailed ours just a few weeks ago. But the sinister twin to the coaching crush is a coach you desperately fear getting the job to lead the Green Bay Packers. This week, we at Acme Packing Company are confronting our fears and sharing the coaches we absolutely don’t want to see taking over in Green Bay.Mike Vieth - Jim HarbaughWe are extremely early in this process and there are several weeks until we will start hearing the names that get an interview so I’m sure my least favorite candidate will change, but right now it’s Jim Harbaugh. I had another name when we got the topic for our Walkthroughs yesterday and that was John DeFilippo. His name might be thrown around as an offensive coordinator for the Packers next year but, as far as a head coach, I think his fate was sealed as a head coaching candidate once the Vikings fired him yesterday.Even with it being reported that Mark Murphy thinks very highly of Jim, I just don’t think he would be what the Packers are looking for. After watching a few Michigan games this year, I don’t think his offense is overly explosive and has some very similar traits to what Mike McCarthy had been running. He was smoked by Ohio State again and, during that game, his offense looked out of date and slow compared what he was facing. That was very telling because the way Ohio State plays is similar to the way the NFL is trending and seeing him sputter that badly just wants me to take a pass on bringing him to Green Bay. On a side note, I don’t think he would take the job because he hasn’t beaten Ohio State yet and now sees a prime opportunity to do exactly that since Urban Meyer has retired. That’s a huge knock on him with the Michigan fanbase and tucking his tail and running without a victory in that game would make Michigan’s favorite son look even worse.Paul Noonan - RetreadsI’m open to anyone provided they’ve shown some progressive tendencies in their playcalling, and how they run a team. My big fear is someone like Gruden, and bless the Raiders for taking him out of the picture, but it’s scary to think what might have been given his previous history with the team, and his reputation as quarterback-friendly. In fact, I don’t think I really want anyone from the Packer family at this point unless Andy Reid became available for some weird reason. I want the next person to present strategy and presence outside of nepotism or organizational comfort. That’s really it. Jon Meerdink - Bill CowherEvery time I see Cowher’s name come up (ironically or otherwise) I involuntarily do a little cringe/laugh. With Gruden off the market (knocks very firmly on wood), Cowher is only other significant “former successful coach I’ve heard of” candidate whose name is regularly thrown out for consideration. I don’t want to dunk on the very earnest commenters of Twitter dot com, but Cowher last coached in the NFL twelve years ago. Even Gruden waited just a modest ten years before getting back into the game. For that (and many other reasons) I have a hard time entrusting the last few years of Aaron Rodgers’ career to Cowher.Evan “Tex” Western - Pat FitzgeraldThe current head coach at Northwestern University has become a popular name in some media circles as a potential candidate for the Packers Green Bay Packers T-Shirts , and I want absolutely zero part of that. I understand why it’s out there -- Mark Murphy was Northwestern’s athletic director in the mid-2000s, and he hired Fitzgerald to succeed Randy Walker after he passed away. But that connection should not be remotely enough to get Fitz the job.Yes, Fitzgerald has the Wildcats in the best stretch of success that the program has ever seen. And yes, three of the school’s four bowl wins (and yes, they’ve only ever won four) have come with him at the helm. But Fitzgerald still has some serious questions about his game management and even this year -- with the Wildcats making their first Big Ten Championship Game appearance -- they simply aren’t a very good team. They allowed more passing yards and rushing yards per game than they recorded offensively, and their overall point differential was just +3, suggesting that their 8-5 record is very much a fluke. In fact, five of those wins were by eight points or less, and four were within four points.In addition, I don’t see Fitzgerald, a defensive-minded coach, as the architect of any sort of creative scheme. Mike Hankwitz is the defensive coordinator and he is the primary driver of NU’s defensive philosophy, not Fitz. And he certainly seems to bring no creativity to the table on offense, which would make his OC hire absolutely critical. Frankly, if the Packers hired from the college ranks, I would much rather look outside the Big Ten at an offensive mind, rather than just go back to Murphy’s buddy.Peter Bukowski - John Harbaugh Let me just echo everything that’s already been said. Hiring Fitzgerald would reek of nepotism and a rigged coaching search. Jim Harbaugh would be replacing one stubborn coach for another with an even bigger ego. What could possibly go wrong? And although the ‘other’ Harbaugh falls into the “retreads” category, I’ll add Jim Schwartz, Bruce Arians, Jim Caldwell, Mike Shanahan (LOL), and any of the other ridiculous names being thrown around. This goes double for Joe Philbin who could just as easily have been my pick here. John Harbaugh would be the worst for a simple reason: what is he good at? Baltimore has, from time immemorial, been an excellent defensive team, cycling through virtuoso coaches and players like an assembly line. One comes in after another comes out. On the other hand, the offense has been one disaster after another, with myriad obviously bad coaching hires on offense (Cam Cameron and Jim Caldwell failed, so I’m sure Marty Mornhinweg will clean up that mess). So what exactly would Harbaugh’s value to the Packers be in 2019 and beyond? At least Schwartz has some defensive chops. Bruce Arians would be an attitude adjustment with a gunslinger mentality. Harbaugh would be like sending back your bacon and eggs order because you really wanted undercooked rye toast. No. Just no. Shawn Wagner - Joe PhilbinI will cheer for the Packers down the stretch no matter what. But even if they go 4-0 under Philbin, I really hope the Packers move on with new blood next season. While Philbin may not be the candidate I least want to see (I’m not sure I quite have a definitive one yet), his hiring is something I certainly would not be excited about.With Philbin returning as offensive coordinator this season, the Packers have not looked any more dangerous than the past few years without him. There is no doubting that Green Bay was once very successful on offense with Philbin as coordinator earlier in Aaron Rodgers’ career. But Philbin’s offense already looks too similar to Mike McCarthy’s through his first game at the helm despite some improvements on third down. As many have noted, McCarthy’s system became outdated and the lack of trust and effectiveness in the system even more apparent. Furthermore, Philbin’s record as Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins was 24-28, with the team failing to post a single season with a winning record.Completely overhauling the offense carries large risk, but change can also act as a jump-start to an offense that can be much more successful than it is, even with young players getting significant reps. This is an opportunity for the Packers to build a new system around those first- and second-year players while trusting the football intelligence of Rodgers to adjust adequately.